Market News
Russian Cellular Market Update 2003 Released
January 9, 2004
AC&M releases a report on Russian cellular operators' performance in 2003. It includes a general overview of the Russian market and provides a brief outlook on regional markets including operations of Russian mobile communications companies in Ukraine and Belarus
You may download AC&M Russian Cellular Market Update, 2003 by clicking on a following link:
Adobe PDF file (~200 Kb).
Number of Russian Cellular Users Doubled in 2003
You may find more from our latest Russian Cellular Market Update, 2003. It includes subscriber growth numbers for the whole year 2003 and detailed figures on Moscow, St.Petersburg and regional markets. The report also covers Russian cellular operators' activities in Ukraine and Belarus.
Top 10 Mobile Operators
| # | Company | December 31, 2003 | November 30, 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 17,291,000 | 15,783,000 |
Moscow | 4,940,000 | 4,709,052 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 3,349,000 | 2,810,000 | |
Belarus | 465,000 | 405,000 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 11,395,000 | 10,498,000 |
Moscow | 5,651,000 | 5,420,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 6,353,335 | 5,817,225 |
Moscow | 850,308 | 803,554 | |
Tajikistan | 13,000 | 10,000 | |
| 4 | SMARTS Group | 1,150,000 | 1,080,000 |
| 5 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,143,100 | 1,066,400 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 507,000 | 439,900 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 368,321 | 334,444 |
| 8 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 230,112 | 172,774 |
| 9 | Dal Telecom International | 205,199 | 175,632 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 150,920 | 136,534 |
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, 2003 | Russian Net Additions, December 2003 |
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Dec. 31, 2003 | Nov. 30, 2003 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 36,230,000 | 33,520,000 |
| Penetration | 25.0% | 23.1% |
| Moscow | 11,487,308 | 10,987,606 |
| Penetration | 67.6% | 64.7% |
| St.Petersburg | 3,526,336 | 3,338,643 |
| Penetration | 55.6% | 52.7% |
Growth Continues in November 2003
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| # | Company | November 30, 2003 | October 31, 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 15,763,000 | 15,050,000 |
Moscow | 4,709,052 | 4,605,000 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 2,800,000 | 2,700,000 | |
Belarus | 405,000 | 360,000 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 10,498,000 | 9,915,000 |
Moscow | 5,420,000 | 5,270,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 5,817,225 | 5,600,296 |
Moscow | 803,554 | 767,502 | |
Tajikistan | 10,000 | 9,500 | |
| 4 | SMARTS Group | 1,080,000 | 1,027,000 |
| 5 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,066,400 | 1,007,500 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 439,900 | 424,300 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 334,444 | 317,029 |
| 8 | Dal Telecom International | 175,632 | 165,382 |
| 9 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 172,774 | 169,669 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 136,534 | 130,180 |
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown | Russian Net Additions, November 2003 |
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Nov. 30, 2003 | Oct. 31, 2003 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 33,520,000 | 31,920,000 |
| Penetration | 23.1% | 22.0% |
| Moscow | 10,987,606 | 10,697,502 |
| Penetration | 64.7% | 63.0% |
| St.Petersburg | 3,338,643 | 3,233,948 |
| Penetration | 52.7% | 51.0% |
Recent events:
- On November 1st MCC launched IMT-MC-450 network in Moscow under SkyLink brand.
- MTS and Vimpelcom announced 9M 2003 financial results.
Moscow Market
First month of MCC's IMT-MC-450 network operations did not changed much in net additions breakdown. GSM operators continue to dominate the market in the capital of Russia.
Moscow market demonstrates signs of mid-term saturation. We expect that in 6-9 month the pace of growth in Moscow region will noticeably slow down.
Moscow Market Breakdown | Moscow Net Additions, Nov 2003 |
Two New Millionaires on the Market
Uralsvyazinform and SMARTS reached 1 mln subscribers while MTS has stepped over 15 mln threshold. Ukrainian an Belorussian operations added almost 200 thsd of new subs for the company. Top five operators significantly outperform other players.
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| # | Company | October 31, 2003 | September 30, 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 15,050,000 | 14,270,000 |
Moscow | 4,605,000 | 4,490,000 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 2,700,000 | 2,550,282 | |
Belarus | 360,000 | 310,000 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 9,915,000 | 9,250,000 |
Moscow | 5,270,000 | 5,065,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 5,600,296 | 5,342,625 |
Moscow | 767,502 | 755,910 | |
Tajikistan | 9,500 | 9,000 | |
| 4 | SMARTS Group | 1,027,000 | 970,000 |
| 5 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,007,500 | 947,600 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 424,300 | 405,000 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 317,029 | 295,738 |
| 8 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 169,669 | 165,234 |
| 9 | Dal Telecom International | 165,382 | 150,711 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 130,180 | 116,7881 |
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown | Russian Net Additions, October 2003 |
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Oct. 31, 2003 | Sep. 30, 2003 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 31,920,000 | 30,280,000 |
| Penetration | 22.0% | 20.9% |
| Moscow | 10,697,502 | 10,326,000 |
| Penetration | 63.0% | 60.8% |
| St.Petersburg | 3,233,948 | 3,123,000 |
| Penetration | 51.0% | 49.2% |
Recent events:
- Penetration in St.Petersburg is over 50%.
- On November 1st MCC launched its IMT-MC-450 network in Moscow.
- On November 4th Vimpelcom has announced that the company has more than 10 mln subscribers
Moscow Market
Moscow Market Breakdown | Moscow Net Additions, Oct 2003 |
Regional Mobile Growth In Full Swing
Russian mobile market grew by record 1.8 mln users in September 2003 fueled mainly by strong growth in regions. Moscow and St.Petersburg together added about 600 thousand of new subscribers while regional networks attracted the remainder bringing penetration of mobile services to 20.9%.
If the trend persists, there will be over 35 mln of cellular users in Russia by year-end 2003.
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | September 30, 2003 | August 31, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 14,270,000 | 4,490,000 | 13,280,000 | 4,390,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 9,250,000 | 5,025,000 | 8,530,000 | 4,835,000 |
| MegaFon** | 5,342,625 | 755,910 | 4,942,745 | 593,643 |
| SMARTS Group | 970,000 | 915,000 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 947,600 | 869,800 | ||
| Siberia Telecom | 405,000 | 352,744 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 295,738 | 279,087 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 165,234 | 161,490 | ||
| Dal Telecom International | 150,711 | 134,453 | ||
| New Telephone Company | 116,7881 | 107,387 | ||
* including UMC of Ukraine (2.55 mln), MTS Belarus subscribers (310,000) and recently acquired Tomsk Cellular Communications (195,000)
** including 9,000 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown
Penetration in Moscow and St.Petersburg is significantly higher compared to the rest of the country so it comes as no surprise that the cellular growth finally spilled over to regions.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Sep. 30, 2003 | Aug. 31, 2003 |
| Russia | 30,280,000 | 28,480,000 |
| Penetration | 20.9% | 19.6% |
| Moscow | 10,326,000 | 9,870,000 |
| Penetration | 60.8% | 58.1% |
| St.Petersburg | 3,123,000 | 2,971,000 |
| Penetration | 49.2% | 47.2% |
Vimpelcom has won the September race for new users in St.Pete for the first time since launching its network in the region. The company earned 34% of net additions followed by MTS (29%) and MegaFon (25%).
Moscow Market
Vimpelcom's Moscow client base grew over 5 mln with 190 thsd of new users added in September. The company leads in Moscow followed by MTS (4.49 mln) and MegaFon (0.756 mln).
MegaFon managed to attract a significant portion of net additions for the second month in a row. The company outperformed MTS thanks to its popular O'Lite tariff plan. MTS explains the slowdown in net additions by a high churn rate on its contract tariff plans resulted from swithching of its contract users to the company's pre-paid tariffs started two month ago.
Moscow Net Additions, August 2003
Vimpelcom Leads in Moscow, MTS Expands in Russia
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | August 31, 2003 | July 31, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 13,280,000 | 4,390,000 | 12,270,000 | 4,290,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 8,530,000 | 4,835,000 | 7,960,000 | 4,650,000 |
| MegaFon** | 4,942,745 | 593,643 | 4,653,450 | 513,257 |
| SMARTS Group | 915,000 | 860,000 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 869,800 | 789,329 | ||
| Siberia Telecom | 352,744 | 324,443 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 279,087 | 268,142 | ||
| Tomsk Cellular Communications | 183,904 | 169,926 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 161,490 | 155,600 | ||
| Tatincom | 118,606 | 120,239 | ||
* including UMC of Ukraine (2.4 mln) and MTS Belarus subscribers (250,000)
** including 8,500 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
MTS finally completed SibChallenge deal (135,000 subscribers) and also acquired Primtelefon (91,000 subs) - a strategic asset for MTS providing access to Far Eastern territories. We have included both companies into MTS subscriber base displayed in the table above. With these transactions closed, only a few attractive independent cellular operators left in the country.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Aug. 31, 2003 | July 1, 2003 |
| Russia | 28,480,000 | 26,880,000 |
| Penetration | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| Moscow | 9,870,000 | 9,505,000 |
| Penetration | 58.1% | 55.9% |
| St.Petersburg | 2,971,000 | 2,841,000 |
| Penetration | 47.2% | 45.1% |
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown
Moscow Market
Megafon demonstrated strong growth in subscriptions for the second month in a row thanks to the new (and heavily promoted) O'Lite pre-paid tariff plan. Vimpelcom was again a winner in Moscow while MTS slowed down the pace. Nevertheless, we believe that MTS will be able to restore its share in net additions soon.
Moscow Net Additions, August 2003
